Commerzbank Warns of Rising Oil Risk as Iran Threatens Bab al-Mandab Strait

Commerzbank's commodity analysts have raised the alarm over rising geopolitical risks for oil markets. The trigger is a renewed threat by Iran to block the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical chokepoint that Saudi Arabia uses to reroute its exports around the Strait of Hormuz.

This development adds a fresh risk premium to Brent crude, as any disruption at Bab al-Mandab would directly impact a substantial portion of global oil supply. The bank's team notes that the threat is not new but the resurfacing comes at a time when markets are already sensitive to supply uncertainties.