AI-driven debt issuance set to hit record $2.25 trillion in 2026
US investment-grade debt gross issuance is forecast to surge 25% YoY to a record $2.25 trillion in 2026, driven by AI capital expenditures, according to Morgan Stanley. Net new issuance is expected to rise 57% to $1 trillion.
US corporate investment-grade gross debt issuance is projected to rise 25% year-over-year in 2026, reaching a record $2.25 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase, per a recent forecast.
Net new issuance—after accounting for maturing debt—is expected to jump 57% YoY to a record $1 trillion. Year-to-date, gross issuance has already climbed 20% YoY to $796 billion.
Morgan Stanley attributes the surge primarily to AI capital expenditure, estimating that AI and AI-related debt issuance will climb to at least $400 billion this year.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter