US Unemployment-CPI Gap Narrows to 0.1 Percentage Points, Smallest Since 2022
The difference between the US unemployment rate and headline CPI has shrunk to just 0.1 percentage points, the narrowest since 2022, as inflation rose to 4.2% in May while unemployment held at 4.3%.
The gap between the US unemployment rate and headline CPI has narrowed to just 0.1 percentage points, the smallest since 2022. This comes as inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest since April 2023, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in March, April, and May.
Historically, periods when this gap has approached zero have often been followed by Fed rate hikes. A notable example includes 2021–2022, when inflation exceeded the unemployment rate for 22 months. This prompted the Fed to hike rates by 5.25 percentage points to 5.5% between March 2022 and July 2023, the highest since 2001.
Inflation is back at the center of the Fed's attention.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter