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macroJul 8, 2026, 3:56 PM

US Oil Prices Seen Above $80 After Trump Says Iran Ceasefire 'Over'

US oil prices are now expected to exceed $80 per barrel this month after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran is 'over.' The probability of $80+ oil surged from just 13% yesterday.

USOIL

Oil price expectations have shifted sharply after President Trump stated that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." This change in rhetoric has swiftly altered market probabilities, with analysts now pricing in a greater than even chance of US crude oil prices rising above $80 per barrel this month.

Just one day earlier, the implied probability of $80+ oil was only 13%, according to market data. The rapid repricing reflects renewed geopolitical risk in the Middle East, a key region for global oil supply.

No further details on the potential impact on output or timing of any price moves were provided in the announcement.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter