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macroJun 4, 2026, 4:55 PM

Nvidia and Chip Index Diverge on Nearly Half of Trading Days

Nvidia (NVDA) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) have moved in opposite directions on roughly 50% of trading sessions over the past 50 days, the highest divergence since the 2022 bull market began.

NVDASOX

Over the last 50 trading sessions, Nvidia and the broader semiconductor sector have shown an unusually high level of divergence. According to data cited by @TheKobeissiLetter, the two have moved in opposite directions on about half of all trading days, a frequency not seen since the start of the bull market in 2022. This rate has more than quadrupled since April.

During this 50-day window, the Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged 84%, while Nvidia rose only 24%. This marks a sharp reversal from the previous two years. From 2024 through 2025, Nvidia returned 277%, far outpacing the SOX's 70% gain. Over that period, the divergence metric fluctuated between 10% and 40%, when Nvidia was actively driving the sector higher.

The data suggests that the semiconductor rally is broadening beyond Nvidia in 2025, with other chip stocks gaining relative strength.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter