Galaxy Research Lowers Clarity Act Passage Odds to 50%

Galaxy Research has revised its estimate for the passage of the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive US crypto regulatory bill, lowering the probability from 60% to 50% by the end of 2026. Analyst Alex Thorn attributed the downgrade primarily to timing constraints rather than any issue with the bill's substance.

According to the firm, the bill has been on the Senate legislative calendar since June 1, but no specific date for consideration has been set. Additionally, a unified text for both the Banking and Agriculture committees has not yet been published, further slowing the process.

The adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook on the legislative timetable, though Galaxy Research still sees a reasonable chance of eventual passage before the 2026 deadline.